We can stop holding our breath. It seems the Scots feel we’re not so bad together after all. 
Big change is coming though. More devolution of powers and greater control over their income and spending seem inevitable. Even the regions are talking of their desire for more autonomy.

So does the current state of Scotland’s housing market give us insight in to the source of Scottish grievances? What’s the situation right now and how might this morning’s decision impact both North and South of the border?

Yesterday’s figures from the Office of National statistics revealed interesting disparities in the national picture. The average UK price now stands at £272,000; an increase of 11% from £245,00. But look at the differences by country.
England. Up £255k to £284k (11.4%)
Scotland. Up £183k to £198k (8.2%)
Ireland. Up £160k to £171k (6.9%)
Wales. Up £132k to £139k (5.3%)

It’s clear that England is well out in front and continues to push ahead. Latest figures suggest    Scotland is enjoying some recent price rises but as you see, prices are still relatively low having not yet bounced back from the deep falls of 2007. The same is true of Wales and Ireland.

But should the English feel bad about languishing in wealth and prosperity while the rest suffer? Perhaps not, as many of them appear to be suffering quite badly themselves.
If we’re to assume that property prices are a reasonably reliable indicator of the financial well-being of a place, then spare a thought for Newcastle. It has been identified as the UK’s worst performing city for house price increases at 3% this year and an average price of £181k. A similar pattern is true of large swathes of the north of England. Not too terrible you might say but not good to have such disparity.

What a very long way from the booming south where the UK’s best performers – Cambridge, Oxford, St Albans, Brighton and yes, you guessed it, London are responsible for such distortion of the national picture. The average London is now reported to have risen by 19.1% this year to a staggering £519,000.

But it’s not just prices of course, it’s whether people can afford to buy. Here though, Scotland’s not fairing brilliantly either. It seems that they, like many other areas of the UK suffer from significant disparity between price and affordability.
In Midlothian, prices are over 8 times average earnings. In the apparently ‘booming’ oil town of Aberdeen prices are a staggering 10 times more. Compare that with 2003 where prices in both places were a much more affordable 4 to 5 times earnings.
Yes there are affordable areas, but would you want to live there and are they where the jobs are? Incidentally, Glasgow, where the ‘Yes’ campaign won a majority this morning, has an average property price of £126,000.

The accusation in Scotland, and now other parts of the Union, is that this southern England bias, aside from not being very fair, runs the risk of being somewhat de-stabilising. The call for an election over the matter suggests they might be right.

So, is it all bad for Scotland?

Quite probably not.
With the world’s spotlight firmly on them and talk of devolving more powers and money to Holyrood, this could be a major turning point for Scotland’s fortunes.

This morning, Lloyds and RBS have firmly backed Scotland again; committing to a ‘significant presence’ there from now on.
Availability of mortgages is no doubt set to increase, which is likely to give the market a further boost.
Prices have already made steady upward progress, especially in the middle of the market and it’s likely that wealthy buyers will soon return too, now that stability and certainty have returned.
The little rattle of confidence in the Scottish people to make ‘the right decision’ brought big promises from Westminster in the final days of the campaign and in that respect, the Scots can be pretty happy with what’s likely to be coming their way.

My tip –  get yourself up there and snap up a nice little crofters cottage while you can. If the world didn’t know about Scotland before, then they certainly do now!

It’s the likes of Newcastle we need to be worrying about. You’ve got to wonder who’s shouting for them?

It might be Spring but London’s never been hotter – in the property market that is. With homes priced at 8 times average income, last year increases of more than twice the average UK salary and 12 buyers for every  sale, it’s not surprising there’s talk of a ‘bubble’.
Price increases are big all over the south east as buyers now rush to snap up anything they can, fearing this to be the last opportunity of affordability before home buying for the masses is gone forever.

Bubble? Maybe. Will the slow-down in prime central cool things off? Hard to say.
Here’s the low-down on current prices, future predictions and for investors with the stomach for it, advice on areas worth considering and the types of property you might consider.

The national picture
Prices have been on the up in the last year:

South West: 5.8% (Av price: £234k)
North West: 5.9  (168k)
East mids: 7.6%  (£164k)
East: 7.7% (£265k)
South East: 8%  (£312k)
London: 18% (£458k)
Prime Central London: 7% (down from 12%) and slowing (£1.6m)
Best performing cities:
Manchester 21% (£210)

London 13%

Brighton 12% (£348)
Leicester & Birmingham 11 & 10%
Worst performers –
Edinburgh, Carlisle, Newcastle, Glasgow, Coventry had 1-2% rises.

The South east
Buyers are moving out of central London due to lack of affordability.
Predictions for the South east is that it’ll outpace London in next 5 yrs. Current hotspots are places such as Guildford Cambridge, Redhill, Farnborough, Egham – Commutable & seen huge rises in last yr. Towns like Oxford, Brighton, Canterbury & Cambridge have seen big increases too.
Oddly there have been some fallers – Haywards Heath, West Sussex (down 3%) Caterham, Surrey (down 9%), Crowborough, East Sussex (down 10%).

..and in London?
London prices are high and rising fast. An 18% price rise in last 12 months.
Here are the Rightmove figures for the last year. For London see pages 8 & 9. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2014/03/march-2014.pdf

Some find it hard to envisage a cooling off any time soon:
– The Govt’s help-to-buy scheme has been extended to 2020
– there’s a drastic shortage of housing. (availability down by 7% in last qtr alone)
– the population is growing and London is where the majority need to be
– London is a ever-expanding world hub of infrastructure, development, jobs & innovation
– Foreigners want UK homes too meaning the UK economy is only one factor driving growth
– London’s now a ‘global currency reserve’ and safe haven in worrying times
Prices/sq ft in prime central double New York & Paris

Prime central
There have been huge rises from 2012-2014, mostly fuelled by foreign investment looking for a safe haven & drawn by favourable tax laws. Many properties are simply investments & stand unoccupied. Early signs are that prices have flattened. (3.1% to 2% in last qtr) and some predict a 1% fall in prices in the top 10% of the market in 2015. That said, contrary to what you might have imagined, the Ukraine crisis may actually be stoking the fire yet again as Russians and Ukrainians are running to off-load their wealth to London before things get worse.

Metropolitan
Some boroughs are reported to be experiencing a house-buying ‘frenzy’. Estate agents report shortage of houses coming to the market in these areas. There have been big rises in the last year and these may continue.

Biggest annual rises can be grouped and explained to some extent:
–
– Traditionally less attractive & rel. cheap areas but with good transport & good housing stock – Brent (North), Hackney Haringey, Tower Hamlets (E), Lewisham (SE)
– Areas just outside traditionally popular & expensive areas – Hammersmith & Fulham (W) Merton (SW), Islington
– Areas just south of the river that are being re-generated, better connected and linked by new bridges to the north side so the Thames isn’t the barrier it once was e.g. Lambeth, Southwark & Battersea have risen a lot.

Outer metropolitan
Outlying towns and outer suburbs are attracting families looking for more for their money. They’re willing to compromise on commute for better quality of life & value for money
Areas south west of London perfomed best – Bracknell, Rushmoor, Slough. Kent too. Sussex hasn’t seen some of the rises of other areas. Surrey too has been lower in parts – perhaps because they were already extremely high

Will the foreign demand remain in London?
No:
–
– new capital gains tax to be introduced in a few days for homes sold by foreigners. It’ll be a 18%-28% tax on the sale of a property that isn’t a primary residence. (depending on an individual’s tax band)
– Politicians regular talk about a possible Mansion Tax. Might be a 1% tax on anything over £2m
– Strengthening pound might make London a less attractive investment
– Company ‘envelopes’ that have previously been used to avoid paying tax will now be subject to it. Buyers may then choose to buy property in their own name but will then be subject to inheritance tax
– The £ may be strengthening which makes London less attractive
– Have the financial crises passed? Do investors need a safe-haven anymore?

Yes:
–
– many believe corporate ‘wrappers’ are used just to be anonymous and not to avoid tax so multi millionaires won’t be too bothered.
– favourable foreign exchange rates may counteract any negative effects of new taxes
– Tax wise, London’s simply coming in to line with most other popular investment hubs like New York & Paris

Will prices continue their upward trend?

– Some believe income-to-wage ratio has become unsustainable. Average London prices are now 8 times the average wage so eventually demand falter
– tighter lending criteria have just been introduced which may make more people ineligible for loans. That said, many lenders are already complying so the effect may not be that great
– Mortgages are way more affordable than they were in 2009 (the crash) which has boosted demand but rates WILL go up and this will inevitably hurt many and reduce demand
– Help to buy scheme has just been extended to 2020 which has boosted house-building and will continue to push up demand for homes
– London is the world’s capital
– the largest centre of technology, finance, innovation, jobs etc. Will this change in the next 10 years?
– The gov’t aren’t addressing housing shortages in any great way so the shortage will continue and demand will remain.

So for investment, what should I consider?
1 bed or 2?
– 1 person & 2 person households are the fastest growing. A 1-bed appeals to both individuals and couples
– Prices are getting beyond the reach of many. Renters are having to compromise in order to keep the price down (just as buyers are) so demand for 1-beds is on the rise
– Fractionally better rental yield with a 1 bed (price you paid vs rental income) i.e. you recoup more in relation to the size of your investment. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2309949/Rent-yields-bed-homes-rises-faster-properties-frozen-time-buyers-drive-demand.html
– Many would opt for a 2 bed if they could afford it. An argument for going for a 2-bed if you’re further out of central London or in a provincial town
– 2 beds are attracting sharers in greater numbers due to high rents. Downside is a little more wear and tear.

Ultimately for buyers in London, if you’re set on a location, the purchase price might be the deciding factor.

Best rental yields
Nationally, the ‘regions’ are generally the best performers for yield. Coventry, Southampton, Liverpool, Blackpool, Sheffield, Cardiff– All around 7.5%. Basically areas with lower house prices; & University towns do well too.
Generally the further from London you get, the better the rental yield has been. The best performing have been places like Blackpool, Birmingham & Merseyside; but it’s too simplistic.

As you move south & more so in the south east & London returns drop, but the potential for house price growth MUST be factored in. ‘Real’ yield means that the south east and London are top.
Beware the age of this article but it explains the concept. http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2013/02/28/top-10-rental-investment-hotspots/. The best yields in London are in traditionally less popular areas in London’s east, though house prices are catching up here fast. e.g. Bethnal green, Bow, East ham & Plaistow.

New-build or period?
New build
– Low stress purchase especially when buying off plan
– Minimal maintenance
– Almost always leasehold so may have a high annual management charge
– modern fixtures & fitting can be attractive to renters
– often no chain
– 10 yr NHBC building guarantee
– a danger of over-inflated prices as they’re more popular with overseas buyers

Period
– some evidence that period properties increase in value at a faster rate
– lower maintenance charges, shared with a few neighbours rather than a large hard-to
-manage block– can sometimes be bought with the freehold
– on-going charm & limited stock will ensure strong demand in the future
– don’t look tired and dated after a few years.
– New-builds age fast
– can be larger with higher ceilings than many new-builds– need a more maintenance
– although all improvements are tax deductible in buy-to-let
– perhaps scope to add value by improvements/upgrades. New build not so easy

Age/condition?
With brand new new-builds you’ll pay a premium, especially in areas where foreign investment is high e.g. The City, the West, as foreigners don’t have the time or the inclination to do work and are attracted by the gleaming exteriors and fancy kitchens.
Better deals are there to be had on blocks that are 10 years old or more and looking a bit tired inside.
If you’re prepared to do a bit of work, sometimes as simple as a new kitchen and a coat of paint, then you’ll get a significantly better deal

So where next for London?
– Some fear there’s a bubble and it’s going to burst for the reasons mentioned.
http://metro.co.uk/2014/02/06/should-i-buy-a-house-now-or-will-a-bubble-send-property-prices-down-4281879/

– There have been huge rises generally perhaps initially caused by Prime central rises but these have tailed off.

– People are running to snap up the ‘cheaper’ areas, starting with the ones with good housing stock and the more ‘trendy’ parts. Areas once considered a bit down market are now firmly up and come e.g. Brixton, Camden & Shoreditch
So perhaps the next areas are in the east – Hackney & Stoke Newington have seen big rises and look to be joining that group. Stratford too. Whitechapel, Bow & Bethnal Green look to be next on the list and have already seen big rises – though housing stock is mixed.

– Taking the whole ‘cheap areas’ thing a stage further. Harlesden & Willesden have had pretty bad reps for years but are well linked up, could link with HS2 if it ever comes, It’s on the Bakerloo line to Paddington and beyond to Marylebone & Regents park. Might be worth a look. http://metro.co.uk/2014/04/17/harlesden-park-royal-home-buyers-drawn-by-transport-connections-4701282/

– Battersea is obviously going to be great but has seen huge rises already. Launch of Phase 2 is happening next weekend – 26th April. 1 beds start at £800k. Don’t think you can go too far wrong. 10% now, 10% in a year and final payment on completion in 2017. Downside – no income for 3 years but worth a punt for some. Is there another Battersea?

– The re-development of Earls Court looks like it’s going to be a huge project and be a massive regeneration. Not much happening there right now but it’s coming. This is the first. http://www.lilliesquare.com. Already sold-out, prices started at £850k for a 1-bed.One idea might be to look in the close vicinity to the site – around Lillie Road. Somewhere you might benefit from the development but be able to get going straight away, get a tenant and sit tight. I might go for a period apartment for reasons mentioned earlier. 

What about neighbouring a well-established area? 
Well if you want ‘affordable’ City then Aldgate might be the ‘cheap’ side though it’s seen a lot of new builds and foreign money recently so might already be a bit ‘done’.
Shoreditch is firmly established now. The area just to the east of Brick Lane is so close to the action but still a bit cheaper and will no doubt go the same way.
Earls Court falls in to this category to an extent – Fulham to the south, Chelsea to the east.
Further out Wapping/Shadwell look good- less than 20 mins from the City but still rel. cheap & near the water so desirable. They’re arguably a longer term investment (10 years) as the coffee shops and bakeries haven’t quite arrived.

South of the river?
Always popular. Clapham, Wimbledon etc all solid but have seen big rises. Areas that might be more up and coming are to the east of there – Tooting is firmly on the rise. Streatham appears to be next – well connect on overground to London Bridge & Victoria. Crystal Palace & Croydon are possible though could be a while getting there. (10 yr+)

Transport links are everything
– Crossrail is the big one. Prices have already risen along the line. E.g. Acton & Ealing in the West have seen big rises. http://www.crossrail.co.uk/route/maps/ Liverpool street & Whitechapel in the east too. Anything that’s walking distance to the station is good. Another reason to look at Aldgtae/Shadwell & Wapping or Bethnal Green perhaps?

– HS2 route – http://www.hs2.org.uk/interactive-map Swiss cottage/Hamstead, Harlesden, Willesden & Wembley are all options. 2017 start. Completion estimated 2026.Established central & affordable? – The edges of The City to the east – Aldgate, Shadwell & Wapping perhaps

– To the west of Marylebone is a little niche of better affordability. In Edgware road prices seem to drop a touch before rising again as you head north west on the Bakerloo line. Still not many 1-beds for less than £550k http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/hot-homes/hot-homes-along-bakerloo-line#1

Useful links:

Price statistics.
Rightmove: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2014/03/march-2014.pdf
Nationwide: http://www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/Q1_2014.pdf

Type of property
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2309949/Rent-yields-bed-homes-rises-faster-properties-frozen-time-buyers-drive-demand.html

Where to invest
London Boroughs set to take off. FT. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/72b9cd16-9499-11e3-9146-00144feab7de.html#axzz2zDmQK4kn
ITV. http://www.itv.com/news/2014-02-08/where-property-sales-are-rising-and-falling/
Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/9183548/Top-10-buy-to-let-hot-spots.html?frame=2184593
Homes & property. http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/hot-homes/uks-top-20-commuter-property-hotspots#3
http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/hot-homes/hot-homes-along-bakerloo-line#1

Buy-to-let advice
Metro. http://metro.co.uk/2014/04/18/a-london-buyer-wants-a-buy-to-let-what-could-go-wrong-4700790/

Price analysis
Telegraph.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/houseprices/10768456/London-house-prices-jump-by-twice-the-average-income.html
New Statesman. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/04/five-signs-london-property-bubble-reaching-unsustainable-proportions
London Standard. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/house-prices-in-london-to-surge-by-nearly-a-quarter-in-just-five-years-report-predicts-9158111.html
This is money: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-1671748/House-prices-What-expect-news-predictions.html

Maps
Tube map. https://www.tfl.gov.uk/cdn/static/cms/documents/standard-tube-map.pdf
Map of London. https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/London/@51.5286416,-0.1015987,11z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x47d8a00baf21de75:0x52963a5addd52a99

I took a trip to York before Christmas; the first time for over 20 years and I wasn’t disappointed. If you’ve not been there, York’s a thriving University town with ancient Viking remains, walk-able Roman wall, narrow medieval streets (the Shambles is the crowning glory) and an impressive railway museum documenting York’s long transport heritage. With the North York Moors and pretty coastal towns like Whitby nearby, it’s surely got to be up there as one of our best cities.

York industrialised more slowly than other northern cities; the reason it was able to hold on to it’s historic charm. At the time of the industrial revolution it became known for it’s fast expanding banking and insurance sectors. The coming of the railways then further revolutionised things and by the 1850s trains were leaving for London up to 13 times a day.

Today, the North is struggling. According to Zoopla’s house price index, 7 out of 10 of the worst performing towns in 2013 were north of Birmingham. Rotherham and Bolton suffering the most. There ‘s higher unemployment in the north, lower investment, greater health problems, higher teenage pregnancy, greater alcoholism. This list unfortunately, goes on

So is it all bad news? No, is the simple answer. House prices aren’t suffering in York, for example, like many northern cities. Indeed they performed quite well this year. According to Zoopla York came 10th in the best performing of 2013 with a rise of 6.6%. According to Nationwide, Manchester too, saw a massive 21% annual increase. (though to be fair they had fallen a VERY long way since the 2009 crash). There are signs of recovery in other northern towns and plenty of news to bring encouragement.

Walking past the Minster, York’s hugely impressive cathedral, I reflected on the unfairness of just focusing on the economics. How much is the North responsible for it’s changing fortunes after all, and not a victim of national and global circumstances?
Take the economics out of the equation and the north becomes hugely attractive.
The estate agents, landlords, shopkeepers, even car salesmen, (thanks Ray Chapman motors for the new car by the way!) that I meet, do a great promotional job. Put simply, northerners are seriously friendly, welcoming and humorous people. Communities ARE a bit tighter here. People DO talk to each other more and they DO look out for one another – fact!

I might point out that I was born and grew up in the Midlands, have lived in Yorkshire and thanks to the Youth Hostelling Association and a dogged determination by my parents to keep 4 spirited children occupied over the school holidays, have spent much time walking almost every corner of ‘the North’. On that basis I feel qualified to comment.

What about the North/South debate then? It’s all a bit old hat in my view. Yes, the north has a rough deal. The disparity in almost every indicator of wealth and prosperity between north and south is striking.
That aside, any sensible minded person only has to ‘go north’ to see why making derogatory remarks is frankly a bit silly. The North is ‘great’ in the both senses. Great in terms of it’s breathtaking industrial heritage and economic contribution for which we should all be grateful but great too because it really is a fantastic place to live, work, bring up a family, explore and enjoy
My advice; get yourself up there, see what your missing and if it’s quality of life you’re after, you won’t do any better. As for what you get for you money compared with the south, no contest.

York
http://www.buzzfeed.com/scottybryan/21-reasons-why-york-is-the-greatest-city-in-the-north
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property/York.html
http://www.visityork.org
http://www.northyorkmoors.org.uk

Useful links 
Hull. City of culture 2017: http://www.hullcc.gov.uk/2017hull
http://www.nationalparks.gov.uk
http://www.yorkshire.com/what-to-do
http://www.visitlancashire.com
http://www.visitderbyshire.co.uk
http://www.golakes.co.uk

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